The NBER identifies months and quarters of turning points without designating a date within the period that turning points occurred.
The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the period.
The Fed is widely expected to cut a key interest rate when officials next meet Dec. The committee's determination puts an end to an expansion that began in late 2001 and latest 73 months.
The previous expansion in the 1990s lasted 10 years, or 120 months.
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Our time series is composed of dummy variables that represent periods of expansion and recession. Whereas the NBER business cycle dates are based on a subjective assessment of a variety of indicators, the dates here are entirely mechanical and are calculated solely from historically reported GDP data. recessions based on a mathematical model of the way that recessions differ from expansions.For this time series, the recession begins the first day of the period following a peak and ends on the last day of the period of the trough.For more options on recession shading, see the notes and links below.